On the Brink (Israel and Iran)

By Jan Markell 


Something major is in the works and it is very likely not good. So many have said Iran will be "ready to go" within days as it concerns her nuclear capability that it has become a bit like crying wolf. Few pay attention anymore.

Well, you'd better listen up.

The Jerusalem Post reports that Russia will start loading uranium fuel into the nuclear reactor of the Bushehr nuclear power station in Iran on August 21. This is the crucial step in outfitting Iran with nuclear weapons of mass destruction.

Russia says the latest U.N. sanctions against Iran will not affect the Bushehr project. This project was slated to happen in late September but now we are just days away from the point of no return. Israel must decide what she will do, and quickly.

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton told Fox News that, "Once the fuel rods are loaded it makes it essentially immune from attack by Israel. Because once the rods are in the reactor, an attack on the reactor risks spreading radiation in the air, and perhaps into the water of the Persian Gulf."

The story immediately became front-page news in Israel, which has laid precise plans to carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Bolton made it clear that it is widely assumed that any Israeli attack on the Bushehr reactor must take place before the reactor is loaded with fuel rods. If that is the case, Israel must act before August 21.

I often hear Yoni the Israeli blogger on the Hugh Hewitt program. In a recent blog, he suggested war is imminent for the following reasons:

1. Hizbullah has dug tunnels into northern Israel. Hizbullah also has 60,000 rockets, many with chemical warheads. Israel has delivered letters to the U.N., Lebanon, and USA, showing where Hizbullah has hidden rockets in civilian areas.
2. The Israel Air Force (IAF) is training in long-range missions, jets, and helicopters, which would suggest commando raids a long way from home. Additionally, Israeli Defense Force (IDF) reserves have been called up and are being trained at an abnormal pace.
3. Israeli subs are sitting off Iran and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has an airbase in Saudi Arabia.
4. Israeli intelligence has captured data showing that Hizullah will preemptively attack Israel at month's end. The objective is to take out IAF bases so Israeli planes cannot hit Iran.

While at first glance Americans think this will not affect them all that much, I am taking some thoughts from my frequent radio guest, Bill Salus, who has written the book Israelestine. Salus states, "Iran's apocalyptic-minded president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has publicly threatened the closing of Hormuz in retaliation for an Israeli or American strike upon his country.

"Additionally, two significant correlating events made the news in May, 2010. First, the Islamic Republic of Iran warned that it would launch terrorist attacks and suicide strikes inside of America in the event of a strike upon Iranian soil. Second, the Iranian Navy conducted a massive war exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, called 'Judgment Day.' This drill reportedly demonstrated Iran's sole and sovereign ability to control those strategic bodies of water."

Salus continues, "Regarding the possibility of Iran playing the 'oil card' against America, on September 15, 2009 The Wall Street Journal published a Bret Stephens article entitled Obama Is Pushing Israel Towards War. In the article Stephens suggested that a Middle East War could push the price of oil up to $300 per barrel. Lately, on average, that precious black gold has been closing between $70 to $80 per barrel. Stephen's estimate suggests an oil-dependent world could be about to experience a spike at the pump of about four times the present amount. Iran still ranks number two behind Saudi Arabia in the OPEC oil cartel, which is responsible for two-thirds of the world's oil supply."

Are Americans, Chinese, Europeans, and others ready for such a steep increase? Americans could expect to feel pain in the waiting lines at the pump and in their pocket books, as increased transportation costs would certainly be reflected in the price of goods sold over the retail counters across the country.

When this strike actually happens, tomorrow or next year, the world will react - as it did after Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak facility in 1981 - with universal condemnation. Israel can do nothing right - including take out a major de-stablizer of the world - Iran's nuclear capability.

And just where will America be in this scenario? Would she participate with Israel? Even Saudi Arabia is participating, by allowing Israel to use a Saudi air base. But don't count on our current White House or State Department to do anything but join the condemning chorus. As George Will says, "Will Israel do what the world won't? If it attacks Iran, the world was warned. If not, the world may regret it."

(HT: BPT)